Global gold production is set to reach a historic high of approximately 3,250 tonnes (105 million ounces) in 2024 before entering a prolonged decline, according to industry experts at the International Metals Symposium in London on December 2.
From 2025 onwards, production will steadily decrease due to depleting reserves, declining ore quality, and the closure of aging mines, warned Oliver Blagden, a gold and base metals analyst at CRU Consulting. “This will be the most gold we’ve ever mined in a single year, ever,” he stated.
The decline represents a pivotal moment for the gold mining sector, which faces challenges such as geopolitical risks, shrinking reserves, and a lack of new projects. Despite strong profits driven by high gold prices, analysts caution that without increased investment, global production could fall by as much as 17% by 2030, significantly tightening supply.
China and Russia, the world’s leading producers, face specific hurdles. China, contributing 11% of global output, struggles with limited reserves relative to its production rate. Russia, meanwhile, contends with geopolitical pressures and lower ore quality.
Jurisdictional challenges also loom large. In West Africa, nations like Mali and Burkina Faso have embraced resource nationalism, nationalizing mining operations and discouraging foreign investment. Conversely, regions such as Argentina and North America offer some optimism with mining-friendly reforms and potential regulatory shifts. However, Blagden cautioned that North America remains the most expensive region for gold production globally.
Despite profitability—97% of gold producers maintain positive margins at a gold price of $2,235 per ounce—the lack of new greenfield projects poses a long-term threat. High prices have not incentivized sufficient exploration, and high-grade deposits are becoming increasingly rare.
Blagden emphasized gold’s unique role as an accumulated commodity, noting that existing stockpiles could meet global demand for decades if mining ceased entirely. However, he stressed the urgency for the industry to invest strategically during this period of high prices. “Without new projects, mines will close, production will fall, and profits will shrink,” he said, urging miners to focus on acquisitions, brownfield expansions, and exploration to sustain the sector’s future.
